By FP1 Strategies
As President Trump begins his second term, he has an historic opportunity to advance a policy agenda that will help the Republican Party build a multicultural, working-class coalition with durable power to transform American politics. If the Trump Administration succeeds in advancing its America First agenda, 2024 could turn out to be a tectonic election like those that occurred in 1932 with Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal and Ronald Reagan during the economic boom years of the 1980s.
The modern conservative coalition is made up of blue-collar people who take showers at the end of their shifts. They wear work shirts with their first names on the front. The GOP coalition is driven by married couples. It’s deeply patriotic, suspicious of coastal elites, supportive of strong borders and revolted by woke politics and political correctness. It’s a party of the factory floor, the church pew, the family farm and small businesses on Main Street. The new GOP is no longer the party of the country-club set, and it is important for Republican leaders in Congress to embrace this fundamental truth and respect President Trump’s understanding of his voters.
According to CNN exit poll data, Donald Trump carried the 59 percent of the electorate with incomes under $100,000 by a margin of 51 percent to 47 percent. Kamala Harris won the 41 percent of the electorate earning over $100,000 by the same 51 percent to 47 percent margin. More exit polling data from the networks revealed that Trump won 50 percent of families with less than $50,000 of income. In 2020, Joe Biden won those same voters by 11 points. Hillary Clinton carried voters earning under $50,000 by 12 points and Barack Obama won them by 22 points in 2012. Trump’s support among the working class extended to minority voters. He won 46 percent of Hispanic voters, carried Hispanic men and overperformed with younger black males. We still live in a closely divided nation, but smart Democrats understand how ominous these data points are for their party’s future.
In a New York Times’ op-ed after the election, James Carville assessed what he got wrong in predicting Kamala Harris’ victory. The Ragin’ Cajun’s conclusion: “It was, it is, and it always will be the economy, stupid.” There’s no doubt that inflation fueled Trump’s strong performance among working-class voters. But the cost of eggs doesn’t tell the whole story of this election. In working on high-profile U.S. Senate races and producing the advertising for a $115 million IE in support of President Trump in the “Blue Wall,” we looked at a ton of polling data and watched hours of focus groups last year. One of our biggest revelations of the cycle was that middle-class voters were incensed by the fact that the Biden Democrats were giving government handouts to illegal immigrants, and that we could turn that anger into an economic issue connected back to inflation. With the cost of groceries, gas, rent and mortgages soaring, voters were spitting mad after learning that the Biden Administration had spent their tax dollars to house illegal immigrants in hotel rooms. The fact that Kamala Harris supported giving taxpayer-funded sex changes to illegal immigrants added fuel to the fire.
We ran several ads that combined voter anger over the border with the economic pain they were feeling from inflation. We learned that voters didn’t see illegal immigration and the economy as separate issues. When presented with the facts, they understood that the worst border crisis in American history was making their financial situation worse. In combining these two vulnerabilities into a tight message, our advertising struck a chord with voters and capitalized on the intensity of the wrong-track numbers in 2024.
Here are some of our favorite 2024 ads that combined the border crisis and the economy:
If the Trump Administration can stay laser-focused on improving the economic well-being of working-class Americans, while securing the border and stopping the influx of illegal immigrants into our country, the GOP will broaden its appeal to minority voters without a college degree. Donald Trump performed better with minority voters than any Republican since Richard Nixon. Governing is always harder than campaigning, but Trump’s strengths on the economy and the border have the power to make him a transformational president and the father of a strong working-class, conservative movement that will drive American politics long after he leaves office.
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